Sunday, April 3, 2016

Only One Person Can Take Trump Down---That's The Donald

BREAKING NEWS:  After the disastrous 2016 elections, what remains of the GOPe and DNCe will combine to form a new party called the DOPeS ...Walter Cronkite's Tweet (parody)
Several weeks ago, I posted a piece entitled: "There Are No Angels In Politics."  Almost every political campaign in history proves this observation to be accurate.  The current campaign is no exception.  In many elections, the electorate is often left with a candidate who does not meet all of their criteria but they vote for the individual anyway---on many occasiosn while holding their noses.

It appears we voters are facing the same dilemma during this campaign on both sides of the political isle.  In my opinion, the Democrats have two toxic candidates from which to choose. Republicans are left with only two--Trump and Cruz (Kasich has only one hope and that's to believe he'll be selected at a contested convention. In fact, he  still has less delegates than Rubio who bowed out three weeks ago).

While Ted Cruz appears to be getting some traction,  Donald Trump still holds the delegate count lead.  Unfortunately for Trump, he's made some serious stumbles in the last few weeks that might actually hurt him (I know. Pundits have been predicting his downfall for the last 6 months.  They've all be wrong).

I believe the only obstacle to Trump getting the nomination (excluding the math) is Donald Trump himself.  As I wite this, Cruz leads Trump in Wisconsin by about 10 points. Trump is currently leading in NY State. But he has a more serious problem. Namely, his unfavorable ratings in many polls range from 60-65. In addition, if the election were held today,  Trump awould lose to Hillary Clinton (Qunnipiac Poll). Among women voters,  he doesn't do much better.  According to a CNN/ ORC polling,  73% of women polled held a negative view of Trump.  With Republican women he's not doing much better with almost 50% indicating they would not vote for him.

As I pointed out in a posting several months ago {"Trump's Appeal Should Surprise No One"}, it was clear his appeal was specific to his focus on illegal immigration, trade and the fact that many Republicans have grown tired of the Republican establishment (actually, most Americans have been disappointed with the political class in general. Strangely, that's also why Sanders is so appealing especially to younger voters).

Peggy Noonan recently wrote this: "...Rather than attempt to win over, he doubles down. In the process, he shows that what occupies his mind isn't big issues, significant questions or the position of the little guy, but subjects that are small, petty, unworthy."  I believe Noonan makes some valid observations. But, ironically, those are some of the aspects of his behavior many of his supporters find attractive. However, we're only in the primary season. The question is whether these will hold up in the national election. If he's poll numbers continue to show high unfavorability ratings among women and other voters (e.g. Hispanics, Blacks, etc.), I doubt they will.

The future is becoming more clear.  If Trump keeps tripping over his own two feet, he'll only have himself to blame.